Flightlines 10: Traveler's Guide to Uncovering Affordable Airfare

Sep 02, 2024

020000Z SEP 24

Good morning,

For budget-conscious travelers, the cost of flights often determines the feasibility and frequency of taking to the skies. Fortunately, by leveraging the right tools and implementing a few savvy booking strategies, you can find affordable flights that might otherwise have been missed.

In this issue of Flightlines:

✈️ Feature: The Traveler's Guide to Uncovering Affordable Airfare

📍Routes of note

United Airlines is expanding its Washington to Lagos service.
Ethiopian Airlines will launch a new route from Addis Ababa to Dhaka.
Starlux Airlines is increasing its Taipei to Los Angeles flights.
IndiGo is adding a new route from Bangalore to Jeddah.

🗞️ In the news

Elliott sends an open letter to Southwest investors criticizing airline leadership.
Aviation fuel shortage causes over 30 LATAM flight cancellations in Colombia.
Two killed in a Delta aircraft tire explosion.
Air China and China Southern receive their first C919 aircraft.
The Flight Attendants Union authorizes a strike at United Airlines.

Feature

The Traveler’s Guide to Uncovering Affordable Airfare

This Flightlines Traveler's Guide aims to be a comprehensive resource to aid in navigating the world of flight deals and travel hacks. In this guide, we'll explore the art and science of finding cheap flights, equipping you with strategies to maximize your travel opportunities without breaking the bank. Whether you're a seasoned globetrotter or planning your first adventure, the techniques shared here will help you master affordable air travel.

To start, it's important to understand some key market dynamics.

Airfare basics

In competitive markets, especially on popular routes, multiple airlines often operate with similar pricing strategies. This can lead to price standardization, where airlines in the same service tier—such as full-service or low-cost carriers—offer fares within a similar range.

Consider these flights from Chicago (ORD) to New York (JFK) on Friday, October 4th. Chicago to New York is a saturated market, as such these carriers are all in tight competition with one another:

In another example, on the route from New York (JFK) to London Heathrow (LHR), a price floor has formed, where despite strong competition on the route, no carrier is willing or able to sell airfare for less than $202 in the given period:

There are 16 airlines that sell flights for service to LHR on September 16th. Even with a robust lineup of carriers operating on the route, a price floor tends to form. This is driven by competitive pressures, where airlines often share similar pricing strategies.

The price history graph on Google Flights confirms this floor:

Performing this initial survey of the market helps equip us with some context when searching flights. Once we’ve identified a typical floor price, real deals will become more obvious.

Flight search

When it comes to searching for the best flight deals, Google Flights stands out as the best resource available. While its search interface is top notch, its true value lies in its unrivaled access to data. Google has amassed the largest database of flight information in the industry, allowing them to display almost all available flights across airlines and routes worldwide.

Google Flights map view example — Cheapest flight prices from RDU for a weekend trip in the next 6 months.

This vast amount of data isn't just about breadth; it's about depth too. Google's extensive historical pricing data enables them to provide highly accurate pricing predictions.

When you're using Google Flights, you're not just seeing current prices—you're benefiting from algorithms that analyze past pricing trends to help you determine whether you're getting a good deal and when might be the best time to book.

What about the data

To truly understand Google's dominance in flight search, we need to look at a critical piece of technology: the ITA Matrix. Developed by computer scientists at MIT, the ITA Matrix interfaces directly with airlines' inventory systems, providing real-time access to fares and availability. Its interface can handle complex routing rules and fare constructions, often uncovering creative itineraries and deals that other systems miss.

Recognizing its value, Google acquired ITA Software in 2010 for $700 million. This allowed Google to integrate ITA's capabilities into its own products, leading to the launch of Google Flights in 2011. By combining the ITA Matrix's robust backend with its vast search property and user-friendly interface, Google created a tool that offers professional-grade search capabilities in an intuitive platform.

The integration of ITA has enabled Google to offer nearly full coverage of all airlines and routes. One of the most exciting recent developments in Google Flights is the inclusion of Southwest Airlines' network in its search results.

Historically, Southwest has been absent from most flight search engines, requiring travelers to check the airline's website separately. With this addition, Google is almost a one stop shop for searching affordable flights.

🔑 Takeaway: Use Google Flights almost exclusively. They have a superior interface, best price prediction, and own a key data provider in the industry.

🗒️ Note: The ITA Matrix legacy interface is still available. Some flight deal resources will refer to this when giving instructions for finding specific deals. For example, this announcement of deal on the flight from Dallas – Milan for $562 from The Flight Deal gives instructions for using the ITA Matrix. We’ll be using the Google Flights interface primarily, but don’t be afraid to try the ITA Matrix, the interface is not as bad as the name would lead one to believe.

How to search effectively

Let's take a look at how to use Google Flights effectively for both set and flexible travel plans.

Set Dates and Destinations

If you have specific travel dates and destinations in mind, first search to try to identify the floor price for the route you want. During this search, you can track flight prices, by activating their automatic tracking feature. Toggle the switch labeled “Track prices” to enable this notification:

Alternatively by manually querying on a daily basis, you can avoid signaling your purchase intent to airlines, which some travelers believe can lead to price increases. While experts swear up, down, left and right that this isn’t the case, when data is on the line, you can be assured it won’t be used against you, if you don’t share it in the first place.

Keeping this in mind, it’s always best to search for flights in a private or “incogntio” browser window so that you have a unique session for each search. It’s also a good idea to use a VPN to mask your origin, and generally as a web security best practice. This will prevent any meaningful tracking or data harvesting that could be accomplished while using flight search tools.

🔑 Takeaway: For a set date and destination, find the floor price. If you’re close to this price, book the ticket. If not, consult the price prediction and track the price over the course of a few weeks. If you get within 2 weeks of your departure date, it’s unlikely that the price will drop from here— book by this time.

Flexible Dates and Destinations

For those with more flexible travel plans, a little elbow grease while searching can go a long way. To start, use the Google Flights explore feature to get a general sense of the cheapest routes from your location at any given time:

This bird's-eye view of flight prices can be invaluable in identifying potential destinations that offer the best value. Once you've narrowed down your options, you can then drill down to specific dates to find the optimal time for your trip.

🔑 Takeaway: Use the Google Flights explorer map to get a general sense of affordable destinations within your chosen time frame.

With a potential destination and date in mind, there are a few more strategies that we can employ to ensure we’ve found the best possible deal.

Advanced strategies

While Google Flights forms the foundation of any good flight search, there are several techniques that can help you uncover even better deals in some instances.

Skiplagged is a controversial but potentially money-saving tool that uncovers "hidden city" fares. These are flights where your intended final destination is actually a layover on a cheaper flight to somewhere else. While this can lead to savings, it's important to note that this practice is frowned upon by airlines and comes with some risks.

Here’s an example of this technique on searching flights from Tampa (TPA) to Denver (DEN). The best value flight can actually be found by booking Frontier flight 3517 from Tampa (TPA) to Detroit (DTW) and getting off at the layover in Denver (DEN). What would otherwise be a 7 hour travel time with one layover is now a direct flight for the same price.

🔑 Takeaway: In addition to searching with Google Flights, see if there are any cheaper routes available by checking “hidden city” fares on Skiplagged.

For those looking to explore more routing options, Flightlist.io offers an interesting perspective on one-way routes, including additional non-codeshare connections that might not show up in traditional searches. This is especially important when flying to destinations with a broad diversity of low-cost carriers, like Europe and Asia.

Here’s a flight from Miami (MIA) to Sofia, Bulgaria (SOF) for a mere $204 by combining routes available from Norse Atlantic, Vueling, and Wizz Air:

Admittedly, these types of routes are not for the feint-of-heart traveler. Twenty-five hours of travel time, with two layovers in two separate countries, involving customs and airline changes can invite its own series of catastrophes.

🔑 Takeaway: Exotic flight combinations can be discovered with Flightlist.io. Use this for an alternative source of unpublished routes that may be cheaper than in-network options.

Avoiding problems

When booking your flights, it's generally advisable to prioritize routes within the same carrier's network. This can help minimize the risk of missed connections and simplify the process if any changes or issues arise.

If you do find yourself needing to book flights with different carriers, consider using a service like Kiwi. They offer a form of "connection insurance," providing some peace of mind when dealing with multi-carrier itineraries (which they also help book).

Remember to allow ample time for layovers, especially when dealing with international flights or connections that require changing terminals as can be the case when booking flights between non-partner airlines. Weather delays, security lines, and other unforeseen factors can quickly eat into your connection time, so it's better to err on the side of caution.

🔑 Takeaway: Try to stay within a single carrier’s network. If you can’t try to book with a service like Kiwi that will back you up if you run into issues. If you can’t do this— allow plenty of time.

Bonus tips

Here are some additional strategies to help you find even better deals and maximize your travel opportunities. These lesser-known tactics can give you an edge in your search.

Stopovers

Some carriers offer the option of "stopovers," allowing you to spend extended time at a layover destination. This can be a great way to see an additional city on your journey without incurring the cost of an extra flight. An example is Copa Airlines' Panama Stopover program. This allows travelers to make a stopover in Panama City for up to 7 days when flying to or from any destination in Copa's network, without paying any additional airfare.

Reward points and miles

Don't forget to consider the value of points and miles. Always check the points price alongside the cash price for any flight you're considering. Some carriers standardize their points costs for specific routes, which can lead to excellent value when cash prices surge during peak travel times.

Additional search methods

When searching for flights, don't limit yourself to simple round-trip queries. Start by searching for one-way routes, then compare these with round-trip and multi-city options. Sometimes, booking two separate one-way flights or utilizing multi-city routing can result in significant savings.

For those with flexible travel plans, don't overlook Kiwi's "Nomad" mode, which can help you build complex, multi-destination itineraries at a fraction of the cost of booking each leg separately. This works by taking a group of destinations and planning the optimal route to visit each in the most cost efficient way.

Around the world for $1272— not bad:

Once you've identified the best flights for your trip, try to book directly through the carrier's website. This can sometimes result in better prices and will certainly make things easier if you need to make changes or deal with any issues that may arise.

Staying informed

To stay on top of the best deals, consider subscribing to reputable flight deal newsletters. Services like Scott's Cheap Flights, Jack’s Flight Club, and The Flight Deal can alert you to exceptional offers that you might otherwise miss.

Balancing time and money

While this handbook provides numerous strategies for finding the best flight deals, it's crucial to remember that time is often our most precious resource. If cost isn't a major factor in your travel plans, there's nothing wrong with finding a reasonably priced ticket and booking it without spending hours on extensive searches.

Final thoughts

Remember, finding cheap flights is part art and part science— and a little bit of flexibility can go a long way. Use these tools and strategies to your advantage, but don't forget to factor in the value of your time and the relief that comes with having your travel plans secured. Similarly, a part of the fun can be the planning process, and using this to inspire dreams of far off destinations.

However you find your next trip, we wish you all the best, and encourage you to enjoy the journey as much as the destination.

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Let's explore this week's noteworthy events that are shaping the future of air travel.

Routes of note

The most significant new routes and service changes this week, offering insight into strategic expansions and market shifts.

🇺🇸 Washington Dulles (IAD) – 🇳🇬 Lagos (LOS) via United Airlines, NW24
United's increased service on this route underscores its commitment to the growing demand in the Africa market, particularly Nigeria, which is vital for both business and diaspora travel.
🇪🇹Addis Ababa (ADD) – 🇧🇩 Dhaka (DAC) via Ethiopian Airlines (Star Alliance), NW24
Ethiopian Airlines' new route to Dhaka strengthens its presence in South Asia, connecting the region to its extensive African network and boosting trade and tourism ties.
🇹🇼 Taipei (TPE) – 🇺🇸 Los Angeles (LAX) via Starlux Airlines, NW24
The expansion of service between Taipei and Los Angeles by Starlux Airlines reflects the carrier's strategy to grow its footprint in the competitive transpacific market.
🇮🇳 Bangalore (BLR) – 🇸🇦 Jeddah (JED) via IndiGo, NS24
IndiGo's new route connecting Bangalore and Jeddah taps into the significant Indian diaspora and religious pilgrimage traffic, particularly for Hajj and Umrah, positioning the airline for strong performance on this route.

In the news

The latest and most impactful stories shaping the world of commercial aviation this week.

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Thank you for reading. Flightlines looks forward to bringing you more insights and updates in the world of commercial aviation next week.

Until then, safe travels and happy flying!

Flightlines